GP Short Notes

GP Short Notes # 548, 18 July 2021

Europe: EU's climate package amidst the rains and floods
Joeana Cera Matthews

What happened? 
On 15 July, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated on the flood situation in Germany: "... there is a dramatic increase in such unusual weather phenomena and we have to contend with this."  On 16 July, she said: "My thoughts are with you, ... will do everything under the most difficult conditions to save lives, alleviate dangers and to relieve distress." The torrential rains and floods have hit Germany and Belgium the hardest. Over the past week, it has claimed at least 143 lives in Germany and 27 in Belgium, while hundreds remain missing. It has been attributed to be Germany's worst natural disaster in half a century as power and communications remain cut in several regions across the country. Showing the direness of the situation, France's national weather service said that two months of average rain had fallen in two days. The Netherlands also remains on alert, taking precautionary measures against potential floods.

On 14 July, the European Commission announced its 'Fit for 55' package as Europe experiences scorching temperatures and floods over the past few weeks. The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: "It is our generational task... [to secure] the wellbeing of not only our generation, but of our children and grandchildren. Europe is ready to lead the way." 

What is the background? 
First, the recent weather anomaly. Prior to the floods, parts of the US and Canada had experienced a blazing heatwave that killed hundreds. Scientists claim that this extreme heat was triggered by climate change which supposedly increased Europe's chances of flooding. The record-breaking temperatures in the Arctic and its subsequent melting have also raised concerns of the global community. Climate scientists remain baffled by the speed at which the change is occurring.

Second, the EU package - 'Fit for 55'. Aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 as part of the European Green Deal, the ambitious package comprises 12 legislative proposals. Its name is derived from the bloc's 2030 goal of reducing emissions by 55 per cent from 1990 levels. The package includes various proposals, from taxing aviation fuel to further tightening emission limits. One of the key proposals is a carbon border tariff – the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), that will increase the import costs for non-EU manufacturers. A EUR 72.2 billion Social Climate Fund is suggested to fund the entire package from 2025 to 2032. However, the proposals are yet to be approved by the EU member states and the EU Parliament. Given its nature, these negotiations could take years to complete.  

Third, the divide in the response. Negotiations are expected to be prolonged since the bloc is internally divided. The bloc sees both regional as well as a national divide. Poland and other central and eastern European countries that rely heavily on fossil fuels are likely to lead the resistance. They remain wary of the social and economic costs of the deal. Critics opine that Brussels risks a backlash from low- and middle-income earners, and should avoid repeating anti-establishment protests like the yellow vests of France. There also exists an East-West divide, given the increased support from the western countries contrasting the critical approach of the east. Internationally, CBAM has become controversial in the US, China and Russia. Environmentalists have also criticized the proposals saying they are not enough. Greenpeace, an NGO, mocked the announcements as "a fireworks display over a rubbish dump".  

Fourth, the necessity of action. According to climate scientists and activists, inaction is not an option. While critics fear increasing costs, they appear ignorant of the already large costs being paid via climate change-triggered events. The effects are becoming more evident, rapid, and disruptive. Aggressive policies to prevent or reduce the rates of climate change are necessary to avoid the extremes. The EU seems to be taking the global leadership in climate action. It shows how willing the bloc is to stake its domestic and international benefits to fulfil its climate goals. However, criticisms pertaining to the package remain.  

What does it mean? 
Europe seems to have taken the first step in a long road. The proposed climate package is nothing short of transformational, given its scale and impact range. However, questions on the practicality of the package and its ability to curb the adverse effects of climate change loom large. 

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